Talking about the 2010 Congressional elections, Historically, whatever party is in the White House will lose seats in the House and Senate in the Mid-term elections. It would be very difficult to predict how much of the Democrats majority would be reduced or if it would be.
In the 2008 Presidential election, many young voters went to the polls. They helped Obama become President But, this was huge national event, which created a lot of excitement with constant daily reporting. Now in the up coming local and statewide campaigns, a much blander event, running many negatives political TV ads, would the younger generation want to get involved
The popularity of the President among the 18 and 29 year old's has fallen sharply. I doubt this would be because they suddenly became social conservatives. The problems the Democrats are having passing the Health Care reform bill might have a somewhat of a negative effect on them but don't think it is a major concern of the youth at this time in their lives.
This younger group of potential voters, being raised through the years of prosperity of the 1990's, they probably were getting just about everything they wanted. Now..they have to go to work to get the things they want and to maintain a lifesyle they have become used to having. When unemployment goes up and work gets more scarce, the newer entries into the work force get hit the hardest..
Could the popularity of this party be slipping because of ..Jobs..Jobs..Jobs.? If the economy picks up and employment becomes more available to all seekers of a steady income, and happening before the November elections, the President's and Democrats approval ratings is sure to up. Which would improve the Democrats chances of retaining more seats in Congress. Yet, This would not solved whole problem.
New voters are less likely to go to the polls than older ones. They need to be energized and motivated to go out and vote, One of the big reason they supported Barrack was that he was younger man and that made it easier for them to connect to him. He wasn't just another old man politician that represented their parents and others always telling them what to do all the time.
The Democratic Party needs to get this more liberal group of people to get out and support them if they want to hold on to as many seats on Capitol hill as possible. There might be 2 good ways to do this. Get younger candidates -or- start communicating to them like Ron Paul does, with the Democrats political policies, of course...